The EURUSD tumbled on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The currency pair is down -1.26% on the day, with a high of 1.1312 and a low of 1.1156. The low has pushed the price below the 2021 trading low of 1.1185, but still remains above the 2022 and January low of 1.11207.
Looking at the daily chart above, the sharp move to the downside today saw the price move below a swing level at 1.1273, another swing level going back to December at 1.1220, and the aforementioned low from 2021 at 1.1185. Those levels are now topside resistance on any snapback rally.
Drilling into the 4- hour chart below gives a more detailed view of the technical bias and risk/target levels.
First going back to January, the price moved below the swing low from 2021 (on January 27) at 1.11853. On January 28 there was a corrective high near 1.1173. On January 31, the price moved above the 1.1173 to 1.11853 area and that started the run higher in the pair.
That area between 1.1173 and 1.11853 (see green numbered circles) is now close resistance intraday. Stay below is the best case scenario for the bears/sellers.
Move above that area, and traders will start to look toward another swing area between 1.12218 and 1.1234 (see red numbered circles). The 38.2% of the last trend leg lower is also in that area increasing the areas importance.
If the price can move above that area on a corrective move going forward, it would disappoint the sellers and should lead to more upside probing. Absent that, and the sellers still are more in control
Summary: The invasion news today has pushed the EURUSD outside what has been a period of ups and downs going back to November 9. One of the major downside lows has been taken out at 1.1185, but the lowest low remains at 1.11207.
Watch 1.1173 to 1.1185 as close intraday resistance now. Stay below and the traders will continue to target the lowest low.
