The EURUSD has moved higher in the Asian/European session today and in the process moved up to test a key technical level ahead of the key CPI data at the bottom of the hour.
The US CPI's expected rise by 0.5% versus 0.1% last month. The Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% versus 0.4% last month.
Technically looking at the hourly chart, yesterday the pair closed near its 100 hour moving average after trading most of the US session above and below that moving average level (see blue line in the chart above currently at 1.07193).
In the Asian session, the price tilted to the upside, and momentum in that direction intensified during the early European session. The price extended up to the falling 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above currently at 1.07629). The price has stalled near that moving average level. The price is also within a swing area between 1.0760 and 1.0775.
Through the CPI data, a weaker number should see the pair break higher, and move up toward the 1.0800 level which is home to the 38.2% retracement along with recent swing lows and swing highs (see green numbered circles). Above that and it opens the door for a run toward the 50% midpoint of the move down from the February high to the February low. That level comes in at 1.08432.
On the downside, they move lower on a stronger number would have traders targeting the 100 hour moving average at 1.0719 followed by 1.0707. Move below those levels, and the sellers would start to look toward the lows from last week and Monday once again. Those lows came in at 1.0668 and 1.06547 respectively.
