The GBPUSD last week, moved up to test - and move above - its 200 day moving average at 1.37323 (currently - green line at the top of the chart above). The breaks on Thursday were thwarted as was another more modest move above on Friday.
Those failures led to the move lower on Friday with the price moving back toward its 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.36833).
During trading yesterday, the price did trade above and below the 100 hour moving average, but ultimately gave up and has pushed lower since that time. The pair is working on it's third down day in row.
Today, the price was given a shove on the move back below its 200 hour moving average at 1.36299. Prior to today, the last time the price move below that moving average was back on January 3 - which quickly was reversed. Before then, you have to go back to December 22nd.
The 200 hour moving average is now a risk defining level for bears. Stay below and the sellers are comfortable.
Closes risk levels come in against 1.3600 and above that the 1.36188 level. That level was a swing high on Tuesday last week, was a swing low on Wednesday and again today before breaking lower. Be aware.
On the downside, the major target comes in against its 100 day moving average at 1.35466. Below that is the 38.2% retracement of the move up since the bottom on December 20 at 1.35281. That level also corresponds with some swing lows from January 7 and January 10.
