The USD is moving higher after stronger than expected retail sales but weaker than expected PPI data. Yields in the US are rebounding after yesterday sharp declines. Stocks are still higher following up the large gains from yesterday's trade.
Looking at the 3 major currency pairs:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD traded up and down off of the US data and in doing so also traded above and below the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high. That level comes in at 1.08613. Traders will be watching that 50% as a barometer in the short term, as the market digests the sharp move to the upside yesterday which saw the pair move above its 100 and 200 day moving averages between 1.0791 and 1.0803. As long as the price can stay above those moving averages, the bias tilt still is probably more in favor of the buyers.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY move down to test the 150.00 level in trading today. The low price reached 150.04 and bounced higher. The subsequent move back to the upside after US data push the price above a swing area between 150.71 and 150.77. It also move the price above its 200 hour moving average at 150.763. That swing area and moving average will be a short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. They moved back below it would have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint of the November trading range at 150.548. Stay above and move back above the broken 38.2% retracement 150.86 would open the door for further corrective moves up toward the 151.00 level.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved lower in the European session after weaker-than-expected UK CPI data. The data this morning has pushed the price below the 200-day moving average at 1.24397. There is also a swing area between 1.2435 and 1.24497.