The USDCHF this week traded to the lowest level since January 2015. That is a long time ago. However, the price hasn't bounced higher. Yesterday saw the USDCHF move back above its 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart below currently add 0.86047, and by the close back above the 200-hour moving average (green line).
In trading today, the price has been confined to a relatively narrow trading range of 32 pips. That is about half of the 66 PIP range seen over the last 22 trading days (around a month of trading). That range has seen a modest decline. However, at session lows, the price tested the falling 200-hour moving average near 0.8638, and found support buyers. The current price is trading at 0.8658.
The holding of the 200-hour moving average increases that levels importance going forward, and gives the buyers some hope for continued corrective price action. Going forward, if the high for the day can be breached at 0.8671, and the high from yesterday at 0.8683 can also be breached, traders will focus on the January 2014 low which comes in at 0.8695 (watch the video above).
Get above THAT level and traders would next target the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 6 high (that high started the trend move to the downside). After a trend-type move, getting above the 38.2% retracement is the minimum retracement to show that the countertrend buyers (in this case) are taking back some control. Absent that, and the correction is a plain-vanilla variety in what is a bearish market.
First things first for buyers though is to get and stay above the 200-hour moving average. Conversely, if that moving average CANNOT hold, and the price moves back below a swing area at 0.86307, traders will look toward the 100-hour moving average down at 0.86047 and the sellers would be back in full control.
