Yields has reversed into negative territory after the weaker than expected ISM nonmanufacturing PMI data. Prices paid was at the lowest level since May 2020. Employment turned into contractionary territory. New orders were lower as well. Not a good report.
Looking at US yields:
- 2 year 4.45% -5.4 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.801% -4.0 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.662% -3.1 basis points
- 30 year yield 3.862-2.1 basis points
At the start of the US session, the two-year was 10 basis points higher in the tenure yield was 9 basis points higher.
- 2-year yield 4.551% +4.9 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.905% +6.3 basis points
- 10-year yield 3.752% +5.9 basis points
- 30-year yield 3.941% +5.8 basis points
The USD has moved to lower with the decline in yields:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD moved back above the swing area between 1.0690 and 1.0704. The price also moved up to test the hourly moving averages. The 100 hour moving average is at 1.07127, and the 200 hour moving averages at 1.0721. The high price moved above the 100 hour moving average, but stalled right at the 200 hour moving average. The current price trades at 1.0715. A move back above the 200 hour moving average at 1.0721 would shift the bias back in the favor of the buyers.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD move back above its 200 hour moving average 1.23987 and above the natural resistance at 1.2400. The price is moving toward the 100 hour moving average 1.24441. The high price after the data came in at 1.24318. The current price trades at 1.2414. With the price now between the 200 hour moving average of 1.23987, and the 100 hour moving average 1.24441, puts the payer in a more neutral technical area. The sellers had their shot. They missed thanks to the weaker than expected ISM data.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY fell back below its 200 100 hour moving averages at 139.73 and 139.548. The current price trades at 139.33. The shift below those moving averages now will use those moving averages as risk defining levels. Stay below is more bearish.