The major US stock indices are sliding to a new session lows:

Looking at the S&P index, it fell below its 200 hour moving average of 4047.27 and has now dipped below its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 22 low at 4030.82. The next target comes in at the swing low from January 30 at 4015.55. The 200 hour moving average is now a close risk defining level for sellers. Stable is more bearish. Last time they price traded below the 200 day moving averages back on January 19.

S&P
S&P slides to a new low and is below the 200 hour MA

US yields are higher but off their highest levels:

  • 2 year 4.699% +7.6 basis points
  • 5 year 4.129% +9.4 basis points
  • 10 year 3.909% +8.2 basis points
  • 30 year 3.935% +4.7 basis points

The 2 year yield traded briefly above the high yield from last week at 4.718%. The high yield reached 4.725% at session highs today. That yield is the highest since November 8.

With stronger data in the US, the risks of a tighter Fed policy going forward is entering the market. Keeping the terminal rate at 5.25% as per the Fed's game plan might be more difficult given the still robust spending.

Two-year
2 year yield trades at highest level since November 8