The USD is a little higher after the US jobs report:

  • Stocks are a little lower. The NASDAQ is up 72 points. The Dow industrial average is up 164 points the S&P is up 19 points. All are lower versus the early premarket levels
  • Fed on track for 50 bps remains intact
  • 2-10 year spread ticks into inversion. The 2 year yield is up to 2.426%. The neutral rate is largely thought to be 2.5%. Although the Fed is well off that level in the short term, the market is near that level across the yield curve.
US yields
The 2-10 year spread inverts

Looking at the USDJPY the pair has been trading above and below its 100 hour moving average at 122.539. The price is back above that level currently trading at 122.74.

If the price can stay above that moving average, a move toward the underside of the broken trendline would be eyed at 123.10 area. That level is also where swing highs and lows occurred over the last five trading days (see blue numbered circles). The price has been able to stay below that broken trendline on corrections over the last two trading days (see red numbered circles).

Conversely it would now take a move back below the 100 hour moving average to disappoint the buyers. A move below should see the buyers turned to sellers, and a rotation back down toward the 200 hour moving average at 122.05..

The price fell below the 200 hour moving yesterday, but moved back above the level in the Asian session today on its way to the upside.

USDJPY trades back above its 100 hour moving average