ANZ Research latest (from chief economist Warren Hogan and senior economist Justin Fabo)

  • Expect 2 cuts from Reserve Bank of Australia in 2016

"pinpointing the timing of the cuts is tricky, but we are penciling in 25bp cuts in February and May at this stage"

ANZ cite:

  • Global growth slowing further, China in particular facing several ssignificant challenges
  • See waning support to non-mining sectors of the economy from housing market activity
  • See a sharply lower AUD next year
  • Those factors will make getting unemployment lower difficult

ANZ ask "Where could they be wrong?'

  • Large China stimulus
  • Continuing momentum in non-mining economy ... ANZ see 2015 continuing along fine, but softening in 2016

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The RBA cash rate target is currently at 2%. If ANZ are correct it would take it to 1.5%