• Sees -3.1% contraction in 2012, in line with govt estimates
• Expects “virtual stagnation” in 2013, with GDP growing 0.3%; downward risks prevail
• Sees exports growth 4.1% in 2012, 5.8% in 2013; internal demand seen down 6.5%, 1.5%
• Sees current, capital accounts near equilibrium in 2013, but uncertainty high
• More budget consolidation measures may be needed in 2012