Adam has posted up a preview or two of the FOMC July meeting Minutes due on Wednesday (at 1800GMT)
- Two things to watch for in the FOMC Minutes
- How to decode the FOMC minutes
Bloomberg have their "what to look for" guide:
A signal from the discussion on whether or not there was a consensus among policy makers that September is the right time for the first interest-rate increase since 2006
(uhhh .... yeah .... that would be great. Anyway ... back to it .... )
- "I would hope to get an indication of how many people would be close to expecting a rate hike," said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC in Washington and a former senior Fed economist. "If you get a sentence like 'Many members felt that the time to raise rates was near' or something like that, that would be a very good indication."
An explanation of the one-word change to its language on conditions that would justify a rate increase... the FOMC wanted "some further improvement in the labor market," adding the modifier "some," and it must be "reasonably confident" inflation will move back to its 2 percent goal over the medium term
- "Where I will start looking is the discussion of why they inserted the word 'some' in the guidance," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. "It suggested they want to convey the message that we are getting closer to full employment. That raises the second tier of questions, how much closer are we?"
More points from Bloomberg .... detail at the link (ungated)
- Concern that a dimmer outlook for global growth could be a headwind for the U.S.
- Discussion of falling commodities prices and how that affects inflation
