Will Janet Yellen pass the baton
I tend to think that change at the top of a central bank is overrated but this is an exception. That's because the Trump administration could choose to entirely reshape the FOMC at the same time. There are three other vacancies on the Fed board and replacing Yellen could be a signal of a sweeping change.
So who is the favorite?
It's still Yellen but we know there are at least six other candidates.
I'm not a big fan of PredictIt (look a those spreads) but it's a reasonable look at how the candidates stack up.
If I had to vote with my heart it would be Warsh. Earlier this year he took no prisoners in a dressing down of the Fed.
Warsh said the Fed should engage in fundamental rethinking of strategy and how it thinks about the world.
That's the kind of change that would make the FOMC far more interesting.
If I had to vote with my head (or my wallet), it would be Yellen. Trump talks about making waves but Yellen is business friendly and I expect four more years of the same... sigh.
