Bullard is speaking on a virtual panel. I'll update the comments as he makes them.
- US households still remain flush, should support consumption
- Looks like we have above-trend growth in Q4
- Better global prospects than just a few weeks ago
- It's hard to see how unemployment is going to go up, the labor market is strong
- We need to avoid a repeat of the 1970s, must maintain rates at high enough levels to make sure inflation moves down
- Something north of 5% is the lowest level the Fed could use to credibly restrict inflation
- Today's CPI data was encouraging that we are heading in the right direction
- There's possibly too much optimism that inflation will come easily back to 2%
- Most likely scenario is that inflation will remain above 2% so policy rate will need to stay higher for longer
- We are really moving into an era of higher nominal interest rates for quite a while in order to get inflation back to target
Sounds like he's upbeat on the chances of a soft landing or avoiding a recession this year.
