A trio of Fed speakers are on the agenda today before the blackout period kicks in on Saturday. The first is at 10 am ET when Evans speaks but they're welcoming remarks to a conference and he spoke yesterday so I can't imagine anything new.
The main events are noon when both both Waller and George are slated to speak on the outlook at separate events. Waller is the one I'll be watching most-closely as it was him that sparked the July risk rally when he eased up on the hawkish rhetoric. Given his hawkish chops, he could single-handedly put 50 bps on the table or offer some kind of other credible dovish hint about terminal rates or Fed responsiveness to a slowing economy.
Note that one-year breakevens are now 2%, so there's reason to believe the Fed could win on inflation quickly.
I also believe that Powell is stung by recent communication misinterpretations and it will be up to top deputies like Brainard and Waller to offer a more nuanced view on the path for Fed policy.]
Ultimately, it will all come down to next week's CPI report and everyone will be watching carefully to whatever is leaked into the WSJ afterwards.
