- The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's central bank symposium is at Jackson Hole is August 25-27.
The topic this year is: "Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy"
CIBC preview what to expect:
- Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole has to respect the divided views on his FOMC in terms of how much further rates have to climb, and the choice of 50 versus 75 bps at the next meeting won’t be cemented until we see the next payroll figures. But he would be on safe ground to emphasize a strong FOMC consensus that rates will have to stay at restrictive levels longer than the market wants to believe. In fact, if the Fed does pause with rates still sporting a 3-handle, and markets choose to keep longer rates inverted (thereby allaying some of the pressure on mortgage rates), that spells a longer run before there’s enough of a downward pull on inflation.
On this:
- rates will have to stay at restrictive levels longer than the market wants to believe
Yes. Markets are in make-believe land if they think inflation will be dropping back lower in any meaningful way any time soon.
Higher rates for longer IMO.
