Last Wednesday, ethereum fell as low as $1005 and a day later I flagged the brewing reversal candle as it hit $1200.
There was some resistance at $1275 but it cut through that on Saturday and has soared today, adding another 20%. It's now up more than 50% in just six trading days.
The catalyst for the jump in ethereum is the switch from an energy-intensive proof-of-work system to a more efficient proof-of-stake system. This will cut energy consumption by 99.95% and is called the Merge. Ethereum Foundation officials are aiming for September 19 as the launch date (read more about it here).
Whether that transition is successful will be a major factor in ethereum and crypto in H2.
Technically, the picture continues to look better. As I highlighted last week, there was a series of higher lows since the June bottom and now we've cracked the double top and the recent range. The measured target of the range break is $1600 while the May lows (no resistance) clock in at $1700.
Another question is whether this is a ethereum-only move or something for broader crypto. Bitcoin has under-performed this move but is now flirting with the July high of $22,484 and a break there would be constructive. Other coins are also seeing some positive flows with must up in the 5-7% range over the last 24 hours.
For broader markets, crypto is sending an optimistic signal and risk appetite. The Nasdaq is starting to get the same feeling with a 1.5% rise today.