Very soon, on April 19, to be exact, the long-awaited Bitcoin halving will take place. After that, rewards to miners will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block found.

So, how will this shake out Bitcoin?

Many "experts" claim that after the halving, coin “creation” will slow down, and fresh supply in the market will decrease. If demand for BTC remains stable, its price will skyrocket.

This is all true, but for interest in digital assets to grow, good vibes in the market need to grow. And let's face it, the vibes aren't sunshine and rainbows right now.

There are several reasons for that:

  • The stock market is in turmoil, and in such a climate, big players aren't exactly rushing to put their money into risky assets like Bitcoin.
  • Geopolitical tensions are still simmering, especially with everything happening in the Middle East. In addition, US inflation data does not point to any near-term rate cuts.

But it's not just the growing ties to the traditional financial system holding back demand for Bitcoin. There are also some technological concerns.

For example, miners could start pulling out of the BTC network due to rising mining costs, which could slow down transaction processing and the overall speed of the network.

How has it gone in the past?

After the second halving, it took three months for the asset's price to rise just 2.6%, and in the fifth month, things started to get serious.

As for the third halving, Bitcoin price shot up 21% in the first three months. Not bad, but as we've seen, it doesn't skyrocket overnight.

Why things would be different now needs to be clarified. Incidents still being determined didn't exactly take off right after its recent halving either: it still needs to catch up on the market.

Bottom line?

Talk of a surefire Bitcoin boom due to the halving? That's jumping the gun. There are a lot of things that have to align for that scenario to play out.

As we've seen, things still need to fall into place. Are you buying bitcoins with all your funds before halving? That's playing with fire, my friend.

But if you have the guts, don't lose sight of support and resistance levels, and, most importantly, don't forget to stop orders. Risk management is critical at times like this.

Overall, let's hope that with the influx of smart money and the growing technical knowledge of crypto investors, the trading game has changed, and the market is a little less chaotic.