Dollar weakness was the main theme
The US dollar weakness was the theme of my June forex seasonal package and it was a winner.
The first trade I highlighted was selling USD/CHF . I noted that the pair had fallen in 10 of the past 12 Junes and it was its worst month on the calendar. I also highlighted the potential chart breakdown.
Indeed the pair did breakdown and continued to break more levels below stalling just below the lows of the year. It fell 2.5% in total, largely on the dovish turn at the Fed.
The same theme was behind two other trends I highlighted: Weakness in EUR/USD and USD/JPY. I noted that June was the second-best month on the calendar for the euro and third-best for the yen.
The main theme was USD weakness and it fell against everything.
I also highlighted three smaller trends that were more mixed. I noted that there wasn't any strong signal in gold, but it posted a great month. I also noted that the long-term patter of weakness in US stocks wasn't true recently. It certainly wasn't this time around with US stocks posting their best month in 50+ years. I did highlight that UK and Canadian stocks tend to struggle in June and both badly under-performed regional rivals.
Finally, I noted that it was a good month for NZD/USD and AUD/USD and both posted solid months, with the kiwi particularly strong largely on the strength of the RBNZ's decision to hold last month.
I'll have seasonals for July on Monday so make sure to check in.
