Justin posted the week ahead option expiry data here
Note the interest in EUR/USD for today at the 10am NY cut:
Watch these levels on approach to 10am NY time for price action. In a nutshell:
- If the prevailing price is close, say 30-50 pips away, and the expiry is large ( $750m + but smaller in less liquid pairs) we can often see the price affected/magnetized as battle ensues from both buyer and seller. We don't see the details of whether it's a "put" or "call" but the price action leading up to the event is what we're really looking for.
- There is no precise science to this and any impact will largely depend on the prevailing market sentiment, but yes we can sometimes see a sharp reveral leading into the expiry only to resume previous trend after.