- ANZ economists Warren Hogan, Cherelle Murphy and Felicity Emmett say thre is very little risk of a budget so brutal it undermines the economic recovery.
- They say that despite the widespread fear and rhetoric of a ‘horror budget’ the reality is likely to be softer
- They say the government will delay major structural changes meant to address fiscal problems
- “Our analysis suggests that the expected fiscal tightening will run very little risk of undermining the recovery in the non-mining economy”
- They added the government’s mooted debt tax on higher income earners was likely to chip about 0.25 percentage points from growth next financial year.
- “Given that the new tax will be aimed at high income earners there is every likelihood that most of the impact of the levy will be on savings rather than consumption surplus.”
Australian Financial Review, gated: ‘Very little’ risk of brutal budget: ANZ
