The lone item to watch for on the weekend calendar is Chinese trade balance on Saturday.
The consensus is for a surplus of $42 billion but pace of growth in imports/exports is a more important metric.
Exports are expected up 10.6% and imports up 5.0%. For me, imports are the key metric because that’s the front end of the global manufacturing cycle and Chinese raw materials importers are quick to cut back when orders for finished goods begin to sag.
Chinese imports y-y
Don’t underestimate this report. The Australian dollar gapped down to start this week on a soft manufacturing PMI and it never recovered.
