From Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Australian GDP growth and implications for the Reserve Bank of Australia

This from BoA/ML's Global Economic 2016 Year Ahead research note ... and for before the blockbuster employment report today! (But, errr, after the previous month's also blockbuster employment report :-D )


  • Australian economy has had been "battered" by sharp falls in mining-related capex commodities prices
  • Says the AUD fall is helping the economic transition
  • Also mention Turnbull's ascension to PM and subsequently more stable political environment boosting sentiment


  • Continuing challenges from the end of the resources boom
  • And new challenges to emerge
  • But anticipate non-resources economy bottomed in 2015, and now will improve in 2016
  • Says GDP to grow from 2.5% (in 2015) to 2.8% in 2016
  • Household spending to edge up
  • Employment growth to continue along with low wage growth

On the RBA:

  • They should gradually consider a rate rise