• Rates to be materially below historical average
  • Point where rates need to rise has moved closer (cable up to 1.6170)
  • New ONS GDP revisions don’t suggest less slack
  • Workforce composition change does not explain all weak pay
  • Nv inflation report will include ONS GDP changes (GDP calculations are being revised in line with EU rules which will mean big revisions to GDP)
  • Revisions unlikely to affect inflation outlook
  • MPC is more cautious on productivity
  • BOE’s Miles comments that there is no immediate urgency to start normalising policy

Here’s the full details of the written report to the treasury committee