Omni Partners hedge fund on the wires over the weekend with comments on the yuan

  • Yuan may fall 15% in 2016
  • Even more if the nation has a credit crisis
  • USD/CNY would have to drop to 7 or 7.5 to meaningfully reverse its appreciation and be commensurate with the depreciation of other slowing emerging markets
  • Even 7-7.5 forecast is too conservative if China were to have a credit crisis

"While Chinese authorities have been intervening heavily in the dollar-yuan market, they cannot ultimately fight economic fundamentals"

"You'll be talking about the kind of moves that Brazil and Turkey have seen, more like 50 percent, and that's how you can create serious numbers like 8, 9 and 10 against the dollar"



Gotta say, I can't see a 50% decline this year, and even the analyst seems confused on this ...

  • "Numbers like 8, 9 and 10 against the dollar" are not even close to a 50% decline
  • Also, China is not Brazil, nor Turkey.

A chill pill or two is in order I would think.