Comments from the Chicago Fed President:

  • If economy grows faster than he expects, it could mean fewer asset purchases this year
  • Vaccines make him more confident in his forecast for 4% growth this year
  • Doesn't anticipate any inflation data in the next 6 months to change the need for low rates
  • Sees unemployment falling to 5% this year, possibly lower
  • Overshooting inflation to the tune of 2.5% would be helpful
  • If we saw inflation heading towards 3%, we would be talking about adjusting our stance

I sense an inflation-inspired market tantrum at some point this year.