New York Fed survey

  • median one year head inflation expectations 4% versus 3.4% April. Richard new high for series (going back to 2013)
  • meeting inflation expectations at the three year horizon increase to 3.6% May versus 3.1% April (second-highest level on record)
  • uncertainty regarding future inflation outcomes increased sharply at the short and medium-term horizons, and are well above pre-pandemic levels
  • mean perceived probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now decreased to a series low of 31.9% May
  • the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next year also decreased to 12.6%, a series low
  • the mean perceived probability of finding a job after a job loss rose sharply to 54.0% in May from 49.8% in April. This was the largest month-to-month increase in the series

The FOMC meeting will begin tomorrow and conclude on Wednesday. The market will be anxious to see if the Fed starts to be more concerned about inflation and starts to look toward tapering QE.