Pacific Investment Management Co. updated its outlook overnight
(This is an ICYMI post)
- Downgraded its outlook for global growth in 2016: to expand 2% to 2.5% for 2016 (were forecasting 2.6%)
- Their U.S. GDP growth outlook is now 1.75 to 2.25 % (down 0.25% from their previous forecast in December)
- See 1 or 2 Federal Reserve rate hikes this year
- Its China outlook is for 5.5 to 6.5% (left unchanged)
- On oil, says ... may get to $50/bbl, citing higher demand triggered by lower prices & "supply rebalancing"
On the yuan:
- Says its "by far the single biggest risk for the global economy and markets this year"
- They see it depreciating 7% against the USD this year
Other risks they highlight:
- Possible Brexit
- US election
- Ongoing Brazil (and elsewhere) instability
- Refugee crisis in Europe