The RBNZ statement and Official Cash Rate

  • All 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast no move
  • Sees average OCR at 1.8% in Q2, Q3 and Q4
  • NZD remains higher than sustainable for balanced growth
  • Uncertainties remain, policies must adjust
  • Sees inflation reaching 2% in Q2 2019 vs Q4 2018
  • Inflation to return to target gradually
  • Longer term inflation expectations well anchored
  • Recent moderate of house price inflation welcome
  • Challenges remain with geopolitical uncertainty
  • Read the Monetary Policy Statement

The shift to a later return to the inflation target is moderately dovish.

The line on the New Zealand dollar in the statement: "The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the exchange rate is needed. "