An early preview on what to expect from the RBA via Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans
This in brief:
- We would be very surprised if the Board decided to move next week but, given our change of view, must accept that as we move closer to our August target, meetings will become increasingly "more live".
(note - WPAC had been forecasting an 'on hold' RBA since August 2016, which was spot on. WPAC changed their view last month and now expecting a 25 basis point cut in August and again in November)
More:
- The GDP report for the December quarter 2018 which prints on March 6 will be important for the rate outlook … we have further revised down our forecast for Q4 GDP growth to 0.2%.
- That would follow a currently reported 0.3% for Q3, implying that the economy lost considerable momentum through the second half of 2018.
