The BOC meeting is tomorrow

The BOC decision on Wednesday is intriguing because there is a substantial chance of a surprise hike priced in. Part of that owes to the BOC's recent history of surprising markets. Another part is because of strong jobs numbers last week.

Here is what's priced in, but note that OIS implied probabilities aren't quite as clear cut as instruments elsewhere.

  • For Wednesday 17.3% chance of a hike
  • Jan 17, 38.6%
  • March 7, 70.3%
  • April 18, 79.0%
  • May 30, 88.4%

The chance of two hikes by May is 54%.

Expect a major repricing tomorrow, either way.