The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet this week, statement and presser is due on Wednesday (timings etc here):

Barclays expect a pivot back to hawkish:

  • "Inflation data have turnedd back up this year. And that will force Powell to become a little more hawkish again,"

While the potential for a June rate cut is well and truly off the table, Barclays say it could be as late as December:

  • "We see September as being the earliest opportunity for the Fed to cut rates" and add that its almost as likely that the first cut comes in December

Barclays see only one cut this year:

  • "We think that the level of rates still above 5% would be justified by year end"

JP Morgan, meanwhile:

  • Fed intends "to keep policy in its current restrictive stance for as long as it takes to gain that confidence" (that inflation is coming down to target
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