In terms of macroeconomic projections, here is the latest from the ECB:

  • 2023 inflation at 5.4%
  • 2024 inflation at 3.0%
  • 2025 inflation at 2.2%
  • 2023 GDP at 0.9%
  • 2024 GDP at 1.5%
  • 2025 GDP at 1.6%

All the details are as what you would expect with the ECB maintaining a more or less similar message and communication to the May meeting. They did remove one line in the forward guidance passage though, that being:

"The ECB’s policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to the euro area financial system if needed."

That was brought in during March and I guess with the banking crisis now over and done with, they feel comfortable enough to take that out.

To sum up, there isn't anything really surprising whatsoever in this decision and the statement. Over to Lagarde next on how she wants to communicate on the July decision.