ECB Knot
ECB Knot
  • Gradualism is not a mistake
  • We can afford to be gradual as long as inflation seen converging towards target
  • Calls for APP program to be wound down as quickly as possible
  • Does not see QE unwinding sooner than Q3; more likely early Q3 than late
  • Doesn't see recession, sees 'slowflation'
  • Rate hike can come in Sept, Oct or Dec
  • Likelihood of second round effects is becoming larger

Is this an April Fool's joke?Their job is inflation near 2% and it was at 7.5% in today's report. Show a bit of humility.

My favourite take is that the ECB can't end QE earlier and hike because it would damage the credibility of their forward guidance.And if 'slowflation' is their baseline, you know it's bad; because they're always too optimistic.