- The data last week clearly showed the jobs market is starting to soften
- Unemployment is about where it was a year ago so change isn't that big
- Recessions are often caused by shocks that come out of nowhere but the data so far is pretty good (for a soft landing)
- I want to be very careful to say that 'we've done the job'
- I want to see 'a couple months' of data
- I would say the risks to doing to much and too little are balanced
- I don't think one more hike would send the economy into a recession
- Data will drive whether the Fed hikes again
- Recent data will allow the Fed to proceed carefully
- We're starting to see the economy slow down
- Treasury yields are about where the should be
- The US economy is 'about 80% closed' so impacts from abroad will be smaller than for others
- We've been keeping a very close eye on commercial real estate, will continue to roll over during the next 2 years or so
- We're not sure about what prices CRE will be trading at in two years
The 'carefully' line to me is now a code word to say that they're on the sidelines with a hawkish bias.
Waller is a hawk though and if he isn't pushing for another hike, who is? The US dollar and Treasury yields came down on his comments.
