IMF chief economist Gourinchas speaking in an interview with Reuters:

  • says central banks' fight against inflation will last well into 2024
  • Inflation will not be returned to target in 2023, but will be closer to target in 2024
  • IMF projects US Unemployment rate will rise 2 percentage points over 2023 and 2024
  • Says a 5.5% US Unemployment rate would be a 'fairly benign outcome' in exchange for bringing inflation back to 2% target
  • Magnitude of future fed rate hikes is less important than reaching goal of returning to neutral or contractionary stance
Gourinchas 12 October 2022