The International Monetary Fund's director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department Krishna Srinivasan remarks in a briefing at the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Incheon
- "There is uncertainty around the direction of monetary policy in Japan, amid a rise in inflation,"
- "Changes in Japan's monetary policy that lead to further increases in government bond yields could have global spillovers through Japanese investors, who have large investment positions in debt instruments abroad,"
- "Portfolio rebalancing of these investors could trigger a rise in global yields, causing portfolio outflows for some countries,"
Also on China:
- "Over the medium term, we expect the Chinese economy to experience a slowdown in productivity and investment, which will lower growth below 4 percent by 2028,"
- "In addition, we see a risk that the global economy fragments into trading blocs," which could deal a particularly heavy blow to export-reliant Asia
And on South Korea:
- China's rapid recovery after the re-opening from pandemic-related curbs will likely lift exports in some Asian countries including South Korea.
- headline inflation is moderating in South Korea on lower energy prices, core inflation excluding food and energy costs has yet to come down decisively"
- the Bank of Korea (BOK) must avoid a premature monetary easing, though it should also minimize the risk of tightening policy too much, he said. "Taking these considerations together, the BoK has appropriately paused rate hikes in the February and April meetings, while keeping options open for further hikes depending on incoming data."
Info via Reuters
