The Reserve Bank of Australia policy announcement is due at 0430 GMT on Tuesday, 2 August 2022.
- A 50bp rate hike is widely expected.
Earlier previews:
- Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting on Tuesday 2 August - preview
- RBA is widely expected to hike cash rate by 50bp tomorrow, again in September.
- Westpac sharply boost their terminal RBA cash rate forecast to 3.35% from 2.6%
- Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs also revising their outside bets to a 50bps hike in August from their prior views of 75bps.
This via Scotia is bang on the money (bolding mine):
with the policy rate at 1.35% going into the decision it rests at just over halfway toward Governor Lowe’s references to a neutral policy rate of around 2½% or higher. As such, policy remains excessively stimulative with inflation well above target and the mantra across many global central banks is to get policy into neutral and somewhat restrictive territory relatively quickly. Lowe recently indicated a data dependent desire to get to at least a neutral stance. Markets see this taking the RBA until late year to achieve after having dramatically repriced the rate path since the RBA’s sudden policy pivot
Scotia provide this graph of changing expectations:
