The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due on 01 August 2023 at 2.30pm Sydney time (0430 GMT, 1230 am US Eastern time). Analysts are split between those expecting no change and those expecting a +25bp rate hike. Market pricing is firmly for no change to the cash rate.
Earlier previews, these are the 'big four' Australian banks, in no particular order:
- Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike cash rate by 25 bp
- Commonwealth Bank expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike cash rate by 25bp
- ICYMI - NAB changed forecast for RBA to 'on hold' (prior was +25bp rate hike)
- ANZ: we expect the RBA to stay on hold this week; AUD/NZD tactical trading strategy
And, from Goldman Sachs:
Adding these in now.
- Tuesday’s decision will be a close call. If they hike there will be trouble, if they don’t there may be double. Just over half of consensus thinks that the RBA will hike by another 25bps while just under half think it will hold. Markets are less convinced that another hike may be delivered with only a small probability of a 25bps move priced in. What dampened market conviction that another hike may be delivered was the fact that Q2 CPI was weaker than expected and compared to the recent trend in terms of headline and core measures like trimmed mean and weighted median CPI. What could instead favour further tightening is still resilient economic growth, four consecutive months of rising house prices, movement by China to add modest stimulus to its economy, still elevated coal prices and ongoing job growth.
- We expect the RBA to resume hiking by 25 bps though it is a fairly close call with analysts almost evenly split on the decision and OIS only pricing in 20% chance of a hike. To justify a hike, the RBA could use the updated economic forecasts to highlight upside inflation risks from the red-hot labour market, rebound in housing activity and strong population growth.
The latest cash and inflation rates from the RBA website.