The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announcement is due at 2pm NZ time:
- 0200 GMT 12 July
- 10pm US Eastern time (on the 11th July)
Earlier preview here:
- RBNZ meet this week, on hold decision widely expected - preview
- RBNZ policy meeting this week - NZIER Shadow Board recommends no change to the cash rate
Via KiwiBank:
- The RBNZ’s decision this week will capture our attention, if only for a few minutes. Market consensus is unanimous, the RBNZ will keep the cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. Having hiked the cash rate from 0.25% in October 2021 to 5.5% today, it’s time for the RBNZ to pause, watch, without worry, and wait. Monetary policy works with significant lags, of up to two years, and we are still feeling the full force of previous rate hikes. 40% of the mortgage book will roll off over the next 6 months. They have most likely done enough to contain inflation. Time will tell.
- What should we expect to see? Other than the “unchanged” announcement, we expect the RBNZ to reiterate a steady path ahead. We think the last line from the last statement will stay the same (or very similar): “The Committee is confident that with interest rates remaining at a restrictive level for some time, consumer price inflation will return to within its target range of 1% to 3% per annum, while supporting maximum sustainable employment.” (RBNZ MPS, May’23).
