The next eight days will be a wild ride of central bank decisions are slated to include a collective 400 basis points of hiking, which is the biggest jump in a small strectch of time in decades.
The moves these central banks make will set the stage for an ongoing hawkish stance or a crescendo of hikes before a shift to a slower pace.
It all starts on Wednesday.
1) Bank of Canada on Oct 26
74% priced in for 75 basis points with the remainder at 50 bps. Talk and pricing of a dovish surprised has picked up.
2) European Central Bank on Oct 27
93% priced in for 75 bps with the remainder at 100 bps. Could it come with a dovish pivot on retreating energy prices.
3) Bank of Japan on Oct 28
No change 94% priced in with 6% for a 10 bps hike. The ultimate wild card, could they abandon yield curve control?
4) Reserve Bank of Australia on Nov 1
92% priced in for 25 bps with the remainder at 50 bps. The RBA has signaled a slowing pace of hikes as they near 3%.
5) Federal Reserve on Nov 2
93% priced in for 75 bps with the remainder at 100 bps. The Fed pushed back on Friday against a +5% terminal peak.
6) Bank of England on Nov 3
58% priced in for 75 bps with the remainder at 100 bps. They were burned by a too-dovish decision that contributed to Truss' demise and now they face another test. Can they maintain credibility?
