WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos tweeted:
The Fed is finally getting more of the data they've wanted but wants to ensure disinflation isn't transitory
That's why their outlook for the labor market and the role they think it'll play in sustaining progress is and could continue to be a big focus
Earlier this week, Timiraos roiled markets a bit with this report. It noted that Fed staff are worried about a too-tight jobs market but that not everyone agrees.
At issue is what’s the right way to forecast inflation: a bottom-up analysis of recent readings on prices and wages that puts more weight on pandemic-driven idiosyncrasies—or a traditional top-down analysis of how far the economy is operating above or below its normal capacity.
Some inside the Fed, including its influential staff, put more weight on the latter, which would argue for tighter policy for longer. Others prefer the former, which could argue for a milder approach.
That will be a question that's surely posed to Powell today and it will be a market mover.
