Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments will be released any moment and there will be far more of them as he's grilled for two days in Congress.
Right now, the market is pricing in a 78% chance the Fed hikes by 25 bps on March 22 with the remaining 22% probability on a larger 50 bps hike.
The Fed funds curve currently peaks at 5.45% in September, offering a good chance that the FOMC will bump rates beyond the 5.1-5.4% central tendency in the December Fed dots. In terms of tail risks, the odds of getting to 6% this year are about 13%.
The rates market still prices in a turn around year end but not nearly to the same degree as a few months ago with the Fed and market outlook largely converging.
Expect Powell to put the focus on incoming data, starting with Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
