Preview of the US Nov CPI, due at 1330gmt on 11 December 2019
(ps. Friday will bring retail sales data, another data point of focus)
A couple of quick previews. Via RBC:
- Headline CPI should decelerate (to about 0.1%) after a robust 0.4% m/m print last month. Gasoline prices slipped on the month by about -1.4% and although less than the seasonal norm, this will add little to topline inflation.
- Core prices are likely to remain benign at about 0.1%. Note that medical care prices posted an outsized seasonal gain last month and we look for some sequential easing here.
Scotia:
- Core CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.3% y/y.
- Core CPI inflation has averaged 0.7 percentage points higher than core PCE inflation over the past five years and the recent spread has been similar. By corollary, this suggests that a core CPI reading that remains unchanged around 2.3% would point to core PCE inflation that remains well below the Fed's 2% inflation target at around 1.6% y/y and certainly nowhere close to demonstrating that the target is symmetrical after years of undershooting.
- Job growth has come on strong and wage growth has accelerated a touch, but the Fed's price stability mandate remains a distant goal.
