By Emma Charlton

BRUSSELS (MNI) – Fears that the Greek government’s woes in the
financial markets could spread to other Eurozone countries mounted on
Tuesday as European policymakers emphasised the need to expedite
discussions on aid for the southern European country and ratings agency
Standard & Poors downgraded its ratings of both Greek and Portuguese
sovereign debt.

Market analysts said the debt crisis was entering a critical phase,
with more certainty on the timing, amount and conditions of the aid
package now needed to shore up the situation.

“In the current situation it is becoming increasingly difficult to
stabilise markets and there is a risk that this could get completely out
of hand,” said Frank Oland Hansen, an economist at Danske Bank. “The
scary thing is that it has become contagious.”

Standard & Poor’s ratings agency Tuesday lowered Portugal’s credit
ratings by two notches and, in a separate announcement, said it was
lowering Greece’s rating to junk status of a BB+ from BBB+ with a
negative outlook.

“The two-notch downgrade reflects our view of the amplified fiscal
risks Portugal faces,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Kai
Stukenbrock. “We expect the Portuguese government could struggle to
stabilize its relatively high debt ratio over the outlook horizon until
2013.”

The Greece government has total debts of E274 billion, which many
market participants think it will not be able to repay. Representatives
from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the
International Monetary Fund are in Athens thrashing out the terms of an
aid deal for the country worth up to E45 billion this year alone.

Spreads of Greek government bonds have been steadily widening
against the bench-mark German bund since the country revealed its
larger-than-expected budget deficit last year.

Until now, the markets’ fears have largely focused on Greece, but
this week, uncertainty about the timing, legality and amount of the aid
package drove spreads on other high debt and deficit countries wider too
and some fear that those countries could get trapped in the same spiral
as Greece.

Spreads on a 2-year Portuguese government bond widened 82 basis
points against the German bund to 391 basis points on Tuesday while
10-year spreads hit 265 basis points, their highest level since the
country joined European Monetary Union.

Ireland’s 10-year spread over the German bund widened 22 basis
points to 218bps, Spain widened 5 basis points to 105bps and Italy
widened 2bps to 98bps.

Greek government bonds traded 663 basis points above German bunds,
while CDS market prices showed credit markets now judge a Greek
government default more likely than a default in Argentina or Venezuela.

Focus now is on how and when the joint Eurozone and IMF package can
be activated and when the money might begin to flow.

“The work going on in relation to the joint programme, that work
should be wrapped up in early May,” a European Commission spokesperson
told reporters in Brussels.

“The work is progressing and our efforts have been intensified
(since Greece formally requested aid on Friday),” she said.

“The upshot is we have to work quickly.”

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told the Wall Street Journal that
he expects “this discussion to go fast.”

At the moment Germany is a key hurdle to be overcome, with a senior
member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU-FDP government
coalition saying in a radio interview Tuesday that at present he
would oppose financial aid to Greece.

Germany will help Greece only if the euro is in danger and Greece
has agreed to budget consolidation and structural reform steps, Juergen
Koppelin, a deputy leader of the FDP parliamentary group, told German
public radio Deutschlandradio.

“As things are now, for me it is rather a ‘No’ to aid,” he said.

Other countries including France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands,
are expected to authorise the loans in the coming weeks.

“With (Greece’s) May 19th redemptions just over three weeks away,
viewers are still on the edge of their seats, always braced for the next
unexpected turn of events,” Marco Annunziata, an economist at UniCredit
said.

But markets are likely to continue to be jumpy until then,
economists said.

“Amid continued uncertainty and speculation – in the absence of
concrete evidence of support for a Greek bailout by Germany – look for
sovereign CDS spreads to remain under widening pressure,” said Simon
Ballard, Senior Credit Strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

“The market now needs tangible evidence that support will be
forthcoming, not just officialdom’s conjecture,” he said.

–Brussels: 0032 487 (0) 32 803 665, echarlton@marketnews.com

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