Final HICP
November: flat m/m, +2.8% y/y
October: +0.1% m/m, +2.9% y/y
Final CPI
November: flat m/m, +2.4% y/y
October: flat m/m, +2.5% y/y
—
BERLIN (MNI) – Germany’s harmonized annual inflation rate eased to
2.8% in November, the Federal Statistical Office said Friday, confirming
its flash estimate. National CPI was also unrevised at flat m/m and
+2.4% y/y.
Upward pressure on monthly inflation came from food prices, which
rose 0.5%. Light heating oil was up 4.4%, gas rose 0.3% while
electricity remained flat and motor fuel fell 0.4%. Packaged holiday
tours were down 3.4% and hotel and restaurant services fell 3.4%.
Annual price trends continued to be fueled by energy, led by
heating oil (+28.5%), motor fuel (+11.3%), electricity (+6.9%) and gas
(+6.7%).
CPI-ex heating oil and motor fuel fell 0.1% on the month and rose
1.8% on the year.
Analysts see little inflation risks in the foreseeable future,
arguing that the expected economic cooling will dampen upward price
pressures. Annual inflation is seen falling below 2% over the coming
months.
On the back of the global and domestic economic deterioration,
input price growth has eased and selling price expectations have been
falling.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble last month cautioned that
Germany’s growth outlook “is no longer as favorable as it appeared half
a year ago. That is the big worry.”
The Finance Ministry forecast in its latest monthly report that the
economic upswing will likely slow markedly in the fourth quarter. Due to
moderating global growth, inflation pressures will likely ease as well,
it said.
The Bundesbank said last month that the economy is set to run into
difficult cyclical headwinds in the coming months, yet there are few
signs to suggest the economy is heading for a recession.
–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com
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