–Pvt AHE Unch, Hrs Dip: Indicating Stagnant IP & Income
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The November employment report was pervasively
weak, and it is unclear how this pause in a slightly better outlook can
be reconciled with other data that recently have been more upbeat.
Payrolls printed +39,000, with private jobs +50,000 as local
government excluding education printed -10,000. We might be inclined to
dismiss this as due to too-severe seasonal adjustment except for the
fact that other data in the employment report were weak, confirming the
payroll slow-down.
The civilian unemployment rate advanced 0.2 point to 9.8% as the
number of unemployed shot up by more than the labor force rose. The
unrounded unemployment rate was even higher at 9.8171%.
Revisions to October-September jobs totaled a mere +38,000.
The November jobs composition was fairly dismal: manufacturing
printed -13,000, construction -5,000, retail -28,100 (after +13,000 in
October), and financial -9,000. Gains were centered in the usual
suspects: temporary jobs +39,500, healthcare +19,200, and restaurants at
+11,700 after +22,400 in October.
Unadjusted overall November payrolls were up 217,000, not enough to
overcome the adjustment factor. November is usually one of the big
hiring months of the year.
Aggregate hours fell and private Average Hourly Earnings were flat
on the month for +2.1% over the year. The data suggest weak production
and incomes ahead.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the December employment
report, due January 7, 2011, will incorporate annual revisions to the
unemployment rate. Then the January data, due February 4, will alter the
birth/death adjustment in payrolls, estimating the adjustment on a
quarterly basis rather than annually.
Details: Payrolls/Prior AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Nov +39k —- +2.1% 99.9 9.8% (9.8171%)
Oct +172k +151k +2.1% 100.1 9.6% (9.6443%)
Sep -24k -41k +2.1% 99.7 9.6% (9.5791%)
** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **
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