–Unemploy Rate Dips as Does Labor Force; Hours-Wages Gain

By Joseph Plocek

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. March employment report was mixed, with
a slowdown in jobs growth probably a payback from mild weather shifting
growth into the winter.

The report probably showed a temporary weather-payback, as payrolls
printed just +120,000 (market expectations were closer to +200,000) and
revisions to February-January at just +4,000 on net. This is a slowdown
from the +246,000/month jobs on average from December to February.
Unadjusted jobs printed +811,000 in March after +902,000 in February.

But there are offsetting stronger data points. The civilian
unemployment rate fell another 0.1 point to 8.2%, a low since January
2009, on a huge drop in unemployment for adult women.

The overall civilian labor force fell 164,000 (mainly in women) but
was higher before seasonal adjustment. The labor force participation
rate dipped as a result. A key question that the data cannot answer is
whether this is a quirk of the mild weather or if more women are staying
home due to the still poor jobs market.

Also, hours and earnings rose, all suggesting a temporary pause in
growth rather than a problemmatic return to a slower underlying pace.

The March payroll composition included weakness in key areas:
construction -7,000, retail -33,800 (all in the seasonal adjustment as
Easter fell early, another reason to suspect growth may resume),
temporary jobs -7,500, and government -1,000 as the postal service and
local education jobs fell. Offsets were manufacturing +37,000, finance
+15,000, leisure +39,000 (mainly at restaurants), and healthcare
+26,000. Wholesale jobs were +4,100 and transportation +2,800 – these
are areas that could be weather-related.

A bottom line is that March jobs growth slowed but weakness could
be temporary; the U.S. economy is still growing.

Details: Payrolls/Prior Pv AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Mar +120k —- +1.76% 103.4 8.2% (8.1916%)
Feb +240k +227k +1.60% 103.3 8.3% (8.2688%)
Jan +275k +284k +1.50% 103.0r 8.3% (8.2632%)

** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

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