–Claims Suggest Little Labor Mkt Move;Contg Clms -34k to 4.537M Wk 7/24
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The latest initial jobless claims data do little
to suggest labor market growth.
Initial claims rose 19,000 to 479,000 in the July 31 week, a little
more than expected, bringing their 4-week moving average to 458,500.
This average peaked at 643,000 in the first week of April 2009 and has
trended lower, although it recently stalled.
A Labor Department economist said the state of Tennessee had
technical issues and estimated their numbers, but overall there was
nothing unusual in the state data. In the prior week, 45 states reported
a decrease in claims and the current period’s advance appears to be a
rebound.
The seasonal adjustments expected initial claims to fall about
30,000, but the result was -3.4% or -14,000, hence the printed gain.
Claims averaged almost 459,000 in July after 467,000 in June and
461,000 in May, a pretty steady reading that suggests little movement in
the labor market. In fact, with the exception of blips in May, claims
have been in the 450,000-460,000 area since March.
Continuing claims fell 34,000 to 4.537 million in the July 24 week,
and these have been on a downtrend since peaking at 6.5 million a year
ago.
There were also 603,853 extended benefits (up more than 197,000 as
state programs were revitalized after Congress passed legislation) and
3.314 million emergency claims for the July 17 week. These data,
although lagged, remain consistent with a struggling labor market.
The insured unemployment rate was 3.6% seasonally adjusted in the
July 24 week, and it is generally assumed that this represents only
about half the labor force. It would seem to suggest some coming
downtrend in the 9%+ official unemployment rate.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
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