Up sharply vs. July 11th forecast
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 2Q GDP has been recalculated and it shows a sharp 0.6% gain from 3.9% to 4.5%. Consumer and government spending pushed the forecast higher.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.5 percent on July 16, up from 3.9 percent on July 11. The nowcast of second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The nowcast of second-quarter real federal government spending growth increased from 1.4 percent to 5.6 percent after the Monthly Treasury Statement release on Thursday, July 12, from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service.
The next report will be on Wednesday July 11.
The US advanced GDP will be released on Friday, July 27th. The Atlanta Fed forecast is near the higher end of the GDP estimate ranges, but most don't have the data from today.
