Next week sets itself up as a critical one for the AUD, notes Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

  • “Since the RBA last met we have seen a relatively steady stream of data disappointments (only punctuated by some positive news in the labour market). Q3 GDP was among the most notable, however retail sales were soft, and both business and consumer confidence have come off the boil, despite a marked drop in petrol prices,” ANZ adds.

A break of 0.80 next week:

  • “Should next week’s business confidence and CPI numbers look as soft as we anticipate, a more sustained RBA easing cycle will be priced, and the AUD will break through USD0.80,” ANZ argues.
  • …and a sustained downtrend after.
  • “This implies that the AUD won’t be above USD0.80 for much longer. We continue to look for further downside in our short AUD/CNH 3-month forward trade, and reaffirm our USD0.76 forecasts for Q2 2015,” ANZ projects.

This is from eFX. There is more investment bank research and trade recommendations are available at eFX